When to place a Halloween order

Halloween has the narrowest sell-through window of any season on the calendar, and the

longest supply chain. Those two facts together decide when an order has to be placed.

The window is shorter than the season

The commercial season is not the month of October. Most sell-through happens in a compressed

window before it, and after that the goods are marked down — which means a late arrival is not a

late sale, it is a discount.

Work backwards from the shelf date rather than forwards from today. The chain is:

• sea transit, plus any inland leg
• customs clearance at origin and destination
• final inspection and packing
• bulk production
• sample production, shipping and sign-off

Every one of those steps can absorb a week without anyone making a mistake.

Q4 congestion is structural, not bad luck

From roughly late summer onwards, factories that serve multiple seasonal categories are competing

for the same lines, and freight capacity tightens with them. A lead time that held comfortably in

spring is not the same lead time in September, even from the same supplier.

The practical consequence is that **sampling is the step buyers most often delay and can least

afford to.** A sample that slips two weeks in spring is recoverable. A sample that slips two weeks

in the middle of the pre-season crush takes the whole run with it.

Order the sample as though it were the production slot, because in a compressed season it is.

What to do differently for a seasonal line

• Approve the sample a season ahead for anything recurring, so the next year's run starts from

an approved reference rather than a new sample cycle.

• Book capacity, not just price. A confirmed slot is worth more than a marginally better unit

price that has no slot behind it.

• Split the shipment if part of the range is more time-critical. Getting the lead SKUs onto the

floor early beats waiting for a complete order.

• Decide the markdown plan before the order is placed. Knowing your exit price changes what you

are prepared to pay for speed.

The uncomfortable arithmetic

A seasonal line that arrives on time at a slightly higher unit cost makes money. The same line

arriving three weeks late at a better unit cost usually does not, because the discount it needs to

clear is larger than the saving.

That is the whole case for treating a seasonal calendar as a specification, exactly like colour or

sizing.